Yields on Japan’s five-year government notes rose to their highest level since 2013 following a selloff in the global debt market and amid speculation the central bank will adjust monetary policy.
The five-year yield rose 1.5 basis points to 0.335% as of 10:03 a.m. Wednesday in Tokyo. The move came after US Treasury yields surged across the curve this week, taking the 10-year and 30-year maturities to new multiyear highs.
Investors are sticking with bets that the Bank of Japan will bring its negative-rate policy to an end in the first half of 2024, despite Governor Kazuo Ueda’s insistence that the central bank remains far from a policy shift. Yields on Japanese bonds across maturities including benchmark 10-year debt have set fresh decade highs in recent days.
The message from US markets, which is resonating around the world, is one of higher rates for longer. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the biggest question before central bankers was how long to leave rates elevated, while known hawk Michelle Bowman reiterated her call for multiple hikes.
Investors worldwide are scrutinizing upticks in Japan’s yields on concerns that they may lead to institutions from life insurers to pension funds to cut back their massive holdings of overseas debt, including US Treasuries and securities from Australia to Europe. Global government bonds have lost 4.2% in the third quarter, the biggest quarterly drop in a year.
