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Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers have been saying

2023-10-24 04:16
The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy
Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers have been saying

The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Lisa Cook, John Michelle

Governor, Williams, Jerome Bowman,

permanent New York Powell, Fed Governor,

voter: “If Fed Chair, permanent

confirmed, I President, permanent voter: "The

will stay permanent voter: policy rate

focused on voter: Additional may need to

inflation "Right now evidence of rise further

until our job we need to persistently and stay

is done.” June keep this above-trend restrictive

21, 2023 restrictiv growth, or for some time

e stance that to return

of policy tightness in inflation to

in place the labor the FOMC's

for some market is no goal." Oct.

time." longer 11, 2023

Oct. 18, easing, could

2023 put further

progress on

inflation at

risk and

could warrant

further

tightening of

monetary

policy.” Oct.

19, 2023

Philip

Patrick Jefferson, Christopher Loretta

Harker, Vice Waller, Mester,

Philadelphia Chair: "We Governor, Cleveland Fed

Fed President, are in a permanent President,

2023 voter: "I sensitive voter: “We 2024 voter:

think this is period of can wait, "We are likely

a time where risk watch and see near or at a

we just sit management how the holding point

for a little , where we economy on the funds

bit. It may be have to evolves rate.” Oct.

for an balance before making 20, 2023

extended the risk definitive

period; it may of not moves on the

not. But let’s having path of the

see how things tightened policy rate."

evolve over enough, Oct. 18, 2023

the next few against

months.” Oct. the risk

18, 2023 of policy

being too

restrictiv

e.” Oct.

9, 2023

Michael Neel

Raphael Barr, Vice Kashkari,

Bostic, Chair of Minneapolis

Atlanta Fed Supervisio Fed

President, n, President,

2024 voter: "I permanent 2023 voter:

would say late voter: “In "Today I put

2024” is on my view, a 40%

the table for the most probability"

an important on the

interest-rate question scenario that

cut. Oct. 20, at this “we would

2023 point is have to push

not the federal

whether an funds rate

additional higher,

rate potentially

increase meaningfully

is needed higher.”

this year Sept. 26,

or not, 2023

but rather

how long

we will

need to

hold rates

at a

sufficient

ly

restrictiv

e level to

achieve

our

goals.”

Oct. 2,

2023

Austan

Goolsbee, Lorie Logan,

Chicago Dallas Fed

Fed President,

President, 2023 voter:

2023 “My focus is

voter: on price

“It’s stability and

undeniable what further

this (fall tightening

in U.S. may be needed

inflation) to achieve

is a our mandate."

trend. It Oct. 19, 2023

wasn’t a

one-month

blip... we

have to

hope and

keep an

eye out to

make sure

that

continues.

" Oct. 16,

2023

Mary Daly,

San Thomas

Francisco Barkin,

Fed Richmond Fed

President, President,

2024 2024 voter:

voter: “I "I am still

would say looking to be

now the convinced,

risks of both that

how we demand is

balance settling and

those that any

things are weakness is

roughly feeding

balanced through to

-- inflation."

over-tight Oct. 17, 2023

ening

versus

under-tigh

tening --

but we

still have

high

inflation

and the

labor

market's

still

strong."

Oct. 10,

2023

Susan

Collins,

Boston Fed

President,

2025

voter:

"The

resilience

we’re

seeing in

the

economy is

part of

the reason

why, from

my view,

the rates

likely

need to

stay high

for

longer."

Oct. 12,

2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)